6 Things the Cowboys Shouldn’t Forget During the Draft
Others have done a far better job of covering the mock drafts and such, but here are some thoughts on some possible draft mistakes that the Cowboys should avoid this weekend:
(1) Don’t forget that Pacman still has a large hill to climb
The odds, I think, are actually against Pacman Jones thriving in Dallas. While there are numerous examples of players with behavior problems from college doing well in the NFL, I cannot think of one example of a player with this many problems occurring while he was a pro who has also turned his life around. The Cowboys found first-round talent in wide receiver Antonio Bryant and cornerback Derek Ross, but neither lasted three seasons in Dallas, nor did either stay long with subsequent teams that took shots on them. Demetrius Underwood was another first-round pick that Dallas picked up at a heavily discounted rate, but he was hardly a steal either. I know that Jones presents a new situation, but it seems to me that he would need to overcome a great deal to be successful in Dallas.
(2) Don’t forget that receivers over the age of 35 tend to decline rapidly
At some point, look at the statistics of some of the all-time great receivers and notice when their stats started to decline. In nearly every instance, receivers tend to begin to slide at the age of 33, and very few remain productive at 35 and older. Some examples:
* Cris Carter: His final 1,000-yard season was in 2000 when he was 35. At the age of 36, he failed to reach that mark for the first time since 1992.
* Tim Brown: His final 1,000-yard season was in 2001 at the age of 35.
* Marvin Harrison: He may very well come back, but his injury-plagued 2007 season at the age of 35 marked the first time since 1998 that he failed to gain 1,000 yards.
* Andre Reed: He was 32 when he last reached 1,000 yards in a season.
* Art Monk: He was 34 when he last reached 1,000 yards.
Jerry Rice is an exception, but he suffered a terrible knee injury in 1997 at the age of 35, and though he was still very good, he was never as great as he was prior to the injury.
My point? Terrell Owens turns 35 in December, and Terry Glenn (who may be done already) turns 34 before this season starts. And while I know that Owens is a workout king, so were many of the others on this list. I think it would be a mistake to assume that he will be as productive beyond a year or two, meaning that receiver should be a priority in this year’s draft as well as next year’s draft.
(3) Don’t forget that Marion Barber himself was a 4th round pick, and there may be plenty of options left at RB after the first round
I won’t be terribly disappointed if the Cowboys pick up Felix Jones or another running back, but there may be options left with the 61st pick. With his 4.24 40 time, if Chris Johnson of East Carolina fell that far, it may be a gift.
(4) Don’t forget that Roy Williams cannot cover anyone
The Cowboys’ opponents haven’t forgotten, and it looks as if the team may limit using him in nickel and dime packages. Reggie Smith of Oklahoma seemed like he could come in an have immediate value due to his ability to play both corner and safety, but he was not impressive in his workouts (he may drop to the third round anyway). A pick for a player who can both play strong safety and cover would be nice.
(5) Don’t forget that the Cowboys have not shown an ability to draft tackles
I’ve seen some mock drafts with Dallas taking a tackle in the first round. After Jacob Rogers (2nd round, 2004); Rob Petitti (6th round, 2005); Pat McQuistan (7th round, 2006); James Marten (3rd round, 2007); and Doug Free (4th round, 2007), I am not terribly confident in the team’s ability to draft for this position. Let’s give McQuistan, Marten, and Free a chance to fail before we waste more picks.
(6) Don’t forget that Dallas has taken a linebacker in the first round three drafts in a row
The first of these picks was DeMarcus Ware, so I won’t say Dallas has bombed with all of these picks. In fact, only Bobby Carpenter should be labeled as a bust, because Anthony Spencer looks pretty good right now. That said, it will be frustrating if the team uses another first or second round pick on a linebacker.
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Coverage of the draft on Saturday starts at 2 p.m. (central).
