Know Your Dallas Cowboys: The Blog

The blogger at Bleacher Report had an interesting post about whether he would select Tony Romo over Troy Aikman. There was a bit of a debate at The Blue and Silver, but I wanted to throw in more about this here.

This is part of the original post:

I want the guy who calls for the original “Hail Mary.” I want the guy who turns a 20 yard bad snap into an additional 10 yard loss and then a 35 yard scramble for a first down. I want to root for a hero who scares me just a little bit. I want to root for the guy who takes a weekend off to go to Mexico with his celebrity girlfriend.

I guess what I’m saying is that with a gun to my head, I’d follow the guy who seems more like I might be if I were in his shoes. Tony Romo is the guy who seems like he’s playing with someone else’s money and enjoying his 15 minutes of fame

I interpreted this to mean the author was talking about risk-taking as his primary reason for picking Romo over Aikman, and for this point I can’t argue, for Romo does take more risks. At least a few have suggested that Aikman could not survive in this new pass-heavy league now. However, neither the numbers nor common sense back up the argument that this league is so much more pass-oriented than it was 15 or so years ago. In fact, a few people may be surprised at some of the numbers.

As a means of comparison, take the stats of the 1992 Cowboys vs. the stats of the 2007 Cowboys. The 1992 season was Aikman’s fourth in the league, just as 2007 was Romo’s, though of course Aikman had the benefit of starting his entire career.

1992 Cowboys

Record: 13-3
Offensive Ranking (pts.): 2
Offensive Ranking (yds.): 4
Points: 409
Total Offensive Plays: 1014
Total Yards: 5606
Total Yards Per Play: 5.5
Passing: 314 comp., 491 att., 3485 yards, 23 TD, 15 Int., 23 sacks.
Rushing: 500 att., 2121 yards.

2007 Cowboys

Record: 13-3
Offensive Ranking (pts.): 2
Offensive Ranking (yds.): 3
Points: 455
Total Offensive Plays: 975
Total Yards: 5851
Total Yards Per Play: 6.0
Passing: 342 comp., 531 att., 4105 yards, 36 TD, 19 Int., 25 sacks.
Rushing: 419 att., 1746 yards.

Therefore:

The 1992 Cowboys completed an average of 19.6 passes out of 30.6 attempts for 217.8 yards, along with 31 rushes per game for 132.6 yards per game.

The 2007 Cowboys completed an average of 20.9 passes out of 33.2 attempts for 256.6 yards, along with 26 rushes per game for 109.1 yards per game.

If anything, these stats show that Romo on average threw longer passes than Aikman, but these numbers hardly suggest that Romo was throwing that much more often than Aikman was at similar times in their respective careers.

Want to know a much more significant difference between the two teams than these stats? The 1992 Cowboys played 873 plays on defense, giving up 3931 yards (54.6 plays per game, 245.7 yards per game). By comparison, the 2007 Cowboys had 1008 defensive plays and gave up a total of 4922 (63 plays per game, 307.6 yards per game). I don’t have time of possession stats to compare, but I would be willing to bet that the 1992 squad held the ball quite a bit more than the 2007 team did. The 1992 team was not known for throwing the ball that much when it was killing the clock, and that team did quite a bit of clock-killing during the 1992 season.

So what does all of this mean? For one, the 1992 squad was a better rushing team with a better defense. But even with a team that was oriented towards ball control, the 1992 Cowboys on average threw the ball only three fewer times per game than the 2007 squad. These were two very different offensive systems, to be sure, but the results simply do not support assertions that the 2007 squad under Romo was that much more focused on the pass than a team under Aikman in a comparable season.

Now if we really want to start comparing for the sake of determining which quarterback we would rather have, consider this:

Troy Aikman’s First Two Playoff Starts

vs. Philadelphia, 1992 Divisional Playoffs, 34-10 Dallas Win: 15 of 25, 200 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int.
vs. San Francisco, 1992 NFC Championship Game, 30-20 Dallas Win: 24 of 34, 322 yards, 2 TD, 0 Int.

(his next playoff start: an MVP performance in Super Bowl XXVII).

Tony Romo’s First Two Playoff Starts

vs. Seattle, 2006 Wildcard Round, 21-20 Dallas Loss: 17 of 29, 189 yards, 1 TD, 0 Int.
vs. New York Giants, 2007 Divisional Playoffs, 21-17 Dallas Loss: 18 of 36, 201 yards, 1 TD, 1 Int.

(if Romo wins his next playoff start, I’ll be more inclined to take this comparison more seriously).

Anyway, I stand by my conclusion in the forum:

The question of whether Aikman could have been a better pass-heavy quarterback often comes up in the debate about Aikman and Staubach. And the bottom line is that Aikman never really had to be that type of quarterback, so this is largely a matter of conjecture. Now, did Aikman ever throw 57 times in a game for 455 yards? (Yes.) Did he nearly will his team back to life in an NFC Championship game, throwing for 380 yards while his Hall-of-Fame running back was slowed with a hamstring injury? (Yes.) At the time, though, I don’t think any of us wanted him to throw that much because the team was so much better when it had a balanced attack (note that the Cowboys lost both of those games I just referred to). The conclusion I’ve always reached in the Aikman vs. Staubach debate is that I wouldn’t have wanted to have Aikman run Staubach’s offense, nor would I want Staubach to run Aikman’s. Same holds true with regard to Romo.

I am very satisfied with Romo’s progress and think that he is another in a great line of quarterbacks. But it is far too premature to say that he is going to remain more durable than Aikman or that the team is going to be better off with him taking all of the gambles that he does.