If you asked a Cowboys fan with a pretty good sense of history to name three of the most disappointing seasons in team history, the years 1984 (no playoffs for the first time in a decade), 1986 (first losing season in 21 years) and 1996 (failed to win Super Bowl XXXI) might come to mind. Another disappointing season to throw in the mix may be 2005, when the Cowboys finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season under Bill Parcells.

What do all of these seasons have in common? Dallas began each season at 7-4 and lost game #12. Here is more:

  • 1984: Dallas started at 7-4 but lost game #12 to a previously winless Buffalo team, 14-3. Dallas finished the season 9-7 and missed the playoffs.
  • 1986: Dallas began the season at 6-1 but fell apart after Danny White was lost for the season with a wrist injury. The Cowboys traveled to Washington with a 7-4 record but were blown out in a 41-14 loss. Dallas finished the season at 7-9.
  • 1996: Dallas struggled early in the season, going 1-3. However, the Cowboys managed to rebound and had a 7-4 record heading into their game against the Giants. Dallas lost a 20-6 game.
  • 2005: Dallas looked solid at 7-3 but lost to Denver on Thanksgiving Day. With a 7-4 record, the Cowboys played the Giants. A 17-10 Dallas loss helped propel the Giants to the playoffs and hurt the Cowboys’ chances to do the same.

Conversely, the Cowboys have had pretty good success in the six seasons in which they won game #12 after starting 7-4. In fact, each of the six times they have won this game, the Cowboys have gone to the playoffs, and in three of those seasons, Dallas went to the Super Bowl.

  • 1970: Dallas had struggled earlier in the season but routed Washington in game #12, 34-0. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-4 and went to Super Bowl V.
  • 1973: Dallas at one point lost three of four in 1973 but had rebounded by week 12. Dallas faced Denver and came away with a 22-10 win. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-4 and made it to the NFC Championship Game.
  • 1978: The Cowboys were looking like the most disappointing team of the 1978 season, but a win over New Orleans in game #12 was part of a six-game winning streak to end the season. Dallas finished the regular season at 12-4 and made it to Super Bowl XIII.
  • 1985: Dallas fell to 7-4 in 1985 when the Bears destroyed the Cowboys, 44-0. Dallas rebounded in game #12, beating Philadelphia 34-17. The Cowboys finished the season at 10-6, winning the last NFC East title under Tom Landry.
  • 1993: Dallas started the season at 0-2, then rebounded to improve to 7-2, but then lost two straight, including the infamous Thanksgiving Day loss to Miami in the Snow Bowl. The 7-4 Cowboys began a streak by beating the Eagles 23-17 and never lost again that year, as Dallas won Super Bowl XXVIII.
  • 2006: Dallas had started the season at 4-4 but won three straight to improve to 7-4 under new QB Tony Romo. At 7-4, Dallas beat the Giants in a 23-20 thriller. The Cowboys finished the season at 9-7, making the playoffs . . . (okay, where they lost to the Seahawks, this week’s opponent . . . ).

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The folks at MVN Outsider asked me to write a short preview of tomorrow’s game. Here it is:

The Cowboys learned last week that good things can happen when teams do not dedicate themselves to eliminating Terrell Owens from the Dallas offense. Owens is likely to receive more attention this week from the Seahawks, who come into the game ranked 31st in pass defense.

Even if Seattle can slow T.O. down, Jason Witten and Roy Williams should have big days. The Dallas defense is a little banged up but is still improving. The Seahawks are just as bad at passing (ranked 31st) as they are defending the pass, which certainly helps Dallas.

Cowboys 31, Seahawks 14

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Accuscore

The Cowboys won 80.1% of the simulations on Accuscore this week, by an average score of 27.8 to 16.5. Here is the summary:

The Cowboys are looking to close the season strong and they have a 56 percent chance of racking up another easy double digit win over an NFC West opponent. Tony Romo has a simulation passer rating over 100 with a 48 percent chance of passing for 250+ yards and 2+ TDs. Matt Hasselbeck has just a 71 rating in simulations with just a 12 percent chance of passing for 250 and 2 TDs. Even if Hasselbeck has a big game the Cowboys are still favored by 6 points winning 72 percent of these simulations because Julius Jones and Maurice Morris only average 3.5 ypc. Marion Barber is averaging 110 rushing yards per sim to give the Cowboys a balanced offensive attack.

Here is more.

What If Sports

The Cowboys did even better on WhatIfSports, winning 90.2% of the simulations by an average score of 32-13.