There were four parts to the “dream scenario” for the Cowboys during week 14. Three of those four parts came true. The part that the Cowboys could control didn’t. Here was that scenario:
The dream scenario for the Cowboys:
(1) Dallas beats Pittsburgh to improve to 9-4.
(2) New Orleans defeats Atlanta. Atlanta falls to 8-5. New Orleans would still only be 7-6.
(3) Carolina beats Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers fall to 9-4. Dallas has the tiebreaker advantage.
(4) Baltimore beats Washington so that the Redskins fall to 7-6.
Under this scenario, it didn’t matter if the Eagles or Giants won. In fact, had Dallas improved to 9-4, the Cowboys would still have an outside shot at catching the Giants. Instead, the Eagles pulled themselves back into contention by beating the Giants and improving to 7-5-1.
Here are the new playoff standings:
Division Leaders:
1. N.Y. Giants, 11-2
2. Carolina Panthers, 10-3
3. Minnesota Vikings, 8-5
4. Arizona Cardinals, 8-5
The Vikings and Cardinals play on Sunday, so the winner will be in a good position to be the third seed. Minnesota beat Carolina, so if Minnesota finishes with the same record as the Panthers, Carolina will prevail. On the other hand, Arizona lost to Carolina, so the Panthers have the edge there. The Giants beat the Cardinals and face the Panthers in week 16.
Wildcard Teams:
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9-4.
Notes: Tampa Bay’s conference record is 8-3. Key loss: vs. Dallas. Tampa Bay faces Atlanta (#7) next week.
6. Dallas Cowboys, 8-5.
Notes: The Cowboys’ conference record is 6-4. Key win: vs. Tampa Bay. Dallas must still face Philadelphia (#8) in week 17.
7. Atlanta Falcons, 8-5.
Notes: The Falcons’ conference record is 5-4. Atlanta faces Tampa Bay (#5) next week.
8. Philadelphia Eagles, 7-5-1.
Notes: If the Eagles sweep the rest of their games, including the week 17 matchup with the Cowboys, they will be in a good position to take the final wildcard spot. The tie may work to their advantage.
9. Washington Redskins, 7-6
Note: The Redskins have a relatively easy schedule, with San Francisco and Cincinnati, but Washington has quite a bit of ground to make up.
10. Chicago Bears, 7-6.
Note: The Bears don’t have much of a chance but are not out of it yet.
11. New Orleans Saints, 7-6.
Note: Same position as the Bears.
Strength of Remaining Schedule
If you watched the broadcast of Monday Night Football, you might have noticed that three of the Cowboys’ final four opponents are among the teams with the best records in the league. Baltimore is a surprise at 9-4, but hopefully the Steelers can beat up on the Ravens next week in time for Baltimore’s trip to Dallas.
Reminders of Playoff Futility for the Cowboys
If the Cowboys are able to make it to the playoff this season, how is this for possible matchups?
a.) At Minnesota? The Vikings were the last team to lose to the Cowboys in 1996. However, Minnesota beat Dallas at home in 1999.
b.) At Arizona? The Cowboys lost to the Cardinals in the 1998 playoffs, marking the first time that the Cardinals had won a playoff game since 1947. Arizona’s first-round game will be the first home playoff game for the Cardinals since the same year.
c.) At Carolina? We might remember the playoff losses to Carolina in 1996 and 2003.
d.) At N.Y. Giants? We might remember last January, even if prefer to forget it.
We’ve Got Answers
Last week I posted a few open-ended questions about the Giants game. Here are the answers.
1. Can the Cowboys’ offensive line, along with tight ends and backs, slow down the Steelers’ pass rush?
Barber isn’t the greatest blocker in the backfield, but he is pretty solid. Tashard Choice is going to have to assume those duties, which puts more pressure on him and more pressure on the linemen.
Answer: Romo generally had plenty of time to throw. Choice made a nice block on James Harrison in the first half, so his play did not appear to be an issue.
2. Can Greg Ellis and Anthony Spencer generate pressure, especially if DeMarcus Ware is slowed by his injury or out altogether?
In 11 years with the Cowboys, Ellis has played in very few of these big games. And the team really needs him. If he and Anthony Spencer can cause concerns for the Steelers, it would certainly help with Ware at less than 100%.
Answer: Ellis was called for offsides in the second half on a 3rd-and-6 play. The penalty negated a stop by the Cowboys. Ellis and Spencer combined for one tackle and four assists, with no sacks.
3. If Dallas loses to the Steelers, what happens to the Cowboys’ playoff chances?
Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta are all in a very tight race in the NFC South. Carolina and Tampa Bay play on Sunday, while Atlanta plays at New Orleans. The Cowboys could lose to the Steelers but not lose any ground if the Buccaneers and Falcons lose. It would also help if the Ravens could beat the Redskins.
Wins by Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Washington tomorrow, along with a Dallas loss, would make things appear pretty bleak.
Answer: See the first part of this post.
4. What happens if Dallas wins?
The Cowboys can improve their position in the NFC with a win. If Tampa Bay loses to Carolina, the Cowboys and Buccaneers would be tied with 9-4 records. Dallas holds the tiebreaker advantage due to the head-to-head win earlier this season. An Atlanta win also puts the Falcons at 9-4 but with a better conference record than Dallas (6-3 to 6-4). Nevertheless, since Atlanta and Tampa Bay are in the same division, Atlanta would be the odd team out according to the tiebreaker rules for three or more teams.
Answer: Dallas didn’t win. It’s uphill from here.
The Panthers Record is 10-3, not 9-4.
Dumb mistake in my part. Thanks for the correction, Drew.
Help me out here. Outside of the very slim chance that the Cowboys are the #5 seed in the NFC and that the #5 and #6 seeds reach the NFC Championship game (ie Packers v. Giants – 2007), there is no chance that the Cowboys host a playoff game, correct? I’m trying to decide whether or not to put prepay for home playoff tickets. I’d rather not tie up $1500 over the holidays if there is no chance of us hosting a game.
Thanks in advance.
I don’t think there is much of a chance at all that Dallas hosts the playoff game. At this point, Dallas would have to beat Arizona and Carolina to reach the title game, while the #6 seed (probably Atlanta) would have to win at Minnesota and at the Giants. There is also the possibility that Dallas loses to either the Ravens or the Eagles, meaning that we wouldn’t go to the playoffs at all. I’d say the deposit is a big gamble.