This is either the last preview of the 2008 season, or the Cowboys will be in the playoffs for the third consecutive season. This season as a whole has been difficult to predict, but that hasn’t stopped everyone from continuing to try. On November 15, I wrote part of a column for MVN Outsider and made the following prediction:
It’s Monday, December 29th and the NFL regular season has just come to an end. What do the NFC East standings look like?
The Cowboys have a long history of finishing seasons strong (e.g., Super Bowl years in 1970, 1971, 1978, 1991, 1992, 1993). The Cowboys also have a recent history of falling apart in December. I do not have a great deal of confidence that this team can start a run, but I don’t think the wheels have come off just yet. I expect a 5-2 finish for the Cowboys and a number six seed in the playoffs.
I think the Eagles may struggle after losing in the manner they did to the Giants. I also think the Redskins could have trouble down the stretch. The Giants are likely to run away with the East.
My forecast:
N.Y. Giants: 13-3
Washington: 10-6
Dallas: 10-6
Philadelphia: 9-7It will be tough for Dallas to finish ahead of Washington, even if the Cowboys win on Sunday night. Washington has a 5-2 conference record compared with the Cowboys’ 3-4 record.
Since November 15, the Cowboys have gone 4-2, and if the Cowboys beat the Eagles, Dallas will indeed finish at 10-6 and will most likely take the number 6 seed. If the Giants beat the Vikings, New York will finish the season at 13-3. Of course, the Giants also ran away with the NFC East. I was wrong about Washington, though the Redskins could finish the season at 9-7 with a win over San Francisco. The Eagles will finish at either 9-6-1 or 8-7-1 (barring yet another tie).
Here was another part of that column, which did not turn out to be so accurate:
[Regarding the Dallas-Washington game on November 16]: What is the single-biggest key to Sunday’s game for the Cowboys, and what is your predicted final score?
Tony Romo’s play is the easy answer, but I think the play of safeties Ken Hamlin and Keith Davis may be more critical. Santana Moss has killed the Cowboys in the past, and with the cornerback situation the way it is in Dallas, it will be tough to stop him. Moreover, Chris Cooley has been very effective against the Cowboys, and he has been pretty consistent all season (four, six, and eight catches, respectively, in the past three games). If Hamlin and Davis could step it up a notch in terms of deep help as well as run support, the Cowboys could effectively counter some of the problems they had during the September 28 meeting.
My prediction this week: Dallas 27, Washington 20.
The final score was Dallas 14, Washington 10, and neither Davis nor Hamlin was much of a factor in that game. In week 16 vs. the Ravens, however, both safeties turned out to be factors, because both missed tackles on Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain in the fourth quarter on the running backs’ long touchdown runs.
Questions Waiting for Answers
As for tomorrow’s game against the Eagles, here are a few questions:
1. Will Tony Romo be effective with the sore back and after missing some practice time this week?
In week 2, Romo completed 21 of 30 passes for 312 yards and three touchdown passes in the Cowboys’ 41-37 win over the Eagles. That included a 72-yard bomb to Terrell Owens, who broke free on a fly route to Romo’s left. Last week against Baltimore, Romo had Owens open on two plays running the same basic route from the same side, but Romo could not get enough on the ball. The second of those passes was badly underthrown and picked off by Ed Reed. It isn’t clear whether his back caused those throws to be off, but Romo hasn’t been himself since getting nailed in the back against the Giants.
2. Can the defense forget about the two long runs against Baltimore and be dominant again?
The Dallas defense isn’t good enough to win games by itself, and it is hard to forget those plays. However, the defense cannot give up 37 again to the Eagles, because the Dallas offense is not going to be able to put up 41 again.
3. Can the Dallas offense find weapons other than Tashard Choice?
It is great that Tashard Choice has been so effective while Marion Barber has been injured, but Choice was the main target for most of the game against Baltimore last week. Dallas needs a complete effort on offense to beat the Eagles and take the next step into the playoffs.
Predictions
ESPN Experts
Five of the eight ESPN experts have picked the Cowboys to beat the Eagles. This includes Chris Mortensen and Merrill Hoge, who have the best records this season for picking games
Dallas Morning News Writers
Similarly, five of the eight Dallas Morning News writers have picked Dallas to win. Tim Cowlishaw picked Dallas, but Rick Gosselin and Jean-Jacques Taylor picked the Eagles.
The Eagles have had a slight edge in the simulations run by Accuscore. Philadelphia won 51% of the simulations by an average score of 22.0 to 21.4. Here is more:
Can Tony Romo deliver in a big game in December? He only has a 78 passer rating in simulations because he is averaging nearly 1.5 turnovers per sim (interceptions + lost fumbles). If Romo has no more than 1 interception the Cowboys have a 56 percent chance of winning. However, if he has 2 or more interceptions like last week against Baltimore, the Cowboys have just a 30 percent chance of winning. Brian Westbrook does not look like he is at full strength. He only has a 31 percent chance of rushing for over 75 yards. If he does have at least 75 yards the Eagles chances increase to 73 percent.
The Eagles likewise won 51.4% of the simulations run by WhatIfSports. The average score of the games was 20-18.
