The collective judgment of most fans and of nearly the entire Dallas press is that the first answer to the Cowboys’ problems is for the team to fire head coach Wade Phillips (though the folks at Fire Jason Garrett takes out their frustrations on a certain offensive coach).

Frankly, I am a couple steps behind in wanting to see Wade fired simply because I have yet to see a compelling argument that suggests a new coach would have that much more success. Many of the current players were here under a great disciplinarian named Bill Parcells, and the players handled his discipline as well as my nine-year-old son handles being told he cannot watch a PG-13 movie. Those who are looking back fondly at the Parcells’ years may have forgotten the 6-10 mess that was the 2004 season or the 9-7 mess in 2005 that was, like 2008, not a playoff year for the Cowboys.

As certain as everyone is that firing Phillips is a cure-all, the truth is that changing head coaches in situations where the coach has had some success is a mixed bag. Some have rebounded with the same coach on board, while others have won with new coaches at the helm. On the other hand, some teams have bombed with a new coach, and still others have failed with the same coach.

Here is a look.

What Happened at Phillips’ Previous Stops

1. Denver, 1993-94

The Broncos went to three Super Bowls with Dan Reeves as the head coach, but a feud between Reeves and John Elway became too much. After an 8-8 season in 1992, Reeves was out. Denver promoted defensive coordinator Phillips to the head coaching position, and the Broncos made the playoffs in 1993 with a 9-7 record. The Broncos fell back to 7-9 in 1994, thanks to a very weak effort by the defense (ranked #28 in yards allowed that year), and Phillips was out.

In came Mike Shanahan, the team’s former offensive coordinator. That 7-9 team improved by one win in 1995, but then had a 39-9 regular season record over the next three seasons, two of which resulted in Super Bowl championships.

Why this scenario suggests that Phillips should be fired: Phillips was a defensive coach who was elevated to head coach. But while he was head coach, the defense declined severely, and since the team was no better than mediocre, it was time to make a change. In Dallas, Phillips has been criticized because his defense has not played to its potential, and since the team was simply mediocre in 2008, maybe it’s already time for a change.

Why this scenario is different: Elway apparently wanted Shanahan to return to Denver, and so there was already a bond there. Shanahan did not have immediate success, though. Denver began the 1995 season with a 2-3 start and limped its way through the year to an 8-8 finish. A new coach in Dallas could very well have just as much trouble as Phillips in 2009, and it’s hard to think that fans and the media will be any more forgiving of a coach in this scenario as they have been of Phillips.

2. Buffalo, 1998-2000

Phillips left Denver and became the defensive coordinator in Buffalo from 1995 through 1997. In Marv Levy’s last season, the Bills finished with a miserable 6-10 record with players such as quarterback Todd Collins and running back Antowain Smith leading the way. Phillips was elevated to head coach in 1998, and the Bills had winning seasons in 1998 and 1999. However, both years ended in first-round playoff losses, and after Buffalo finished 8-8 in 2000, Phillips was out.

The year after Phillips left, the Bills fell to 3-13. And since that 2000 season, Buffalo has managed just one winning season, and that was only a 9-7 effort that did not result in a playoff berth.

Why this scenario suggests that Phillips should not be fired: Dallas may have a much better roster than the Bills did in 2001, but this Dallas team has already shown that it can be fragile (both in a physical and in an emotional sense). Bring in a disciplinarian who is not well-received, continue to have the type of injuries the Cowboys had in 2008, and it is possible that Dallas could finish with a worse record than they may have had with Phillips.

Why this scenario is different: The Bills have not been able to settle on a quarterback this entire decade, and they always seem to be in a rebuilding mode. A lot of very bad things would have to happen for the Cowboys to fall into the type of rut that the Bills have been in.

Hiring Former Super Bowl Champion Coaches

The names of Mike Holmgren and Bill Cowher have been tossed around a lot as possible replacements for Phillips, but bringing in big-name coaches has usually not solved problems for teams in the past. Here is a look at how former Super Bowl champion coaches have done when hired by other teams.

1. Hank Stram

Stram coached the Kansas City Chiefs to a Super Bowl IV title in 1969 and remained with the Chiefs until 1974. He was hired by New Orleans in 1976 to take over the Saints, but his reign was a complete failure as New Orleans finished with 4-10 and 3-11 records in 1976 and 1977.

2. Tom Flores

Flores won two Super Bowl titles in four seasons with the Raiders. He left the Raiders in 1987 but returned to coaching in 1992 with the Seattle Seahawks. Three seasons in Seattle were complete failures, as the Seahawks went 2-14, 6-10, and 6-10.

3. Joe Gibbs

One of the great coaches of the 1980s did not have the same success when returning to the Redskins in the 2000s.

4. Mike Ditka

Ditka was successful for most of his tenure in Chicago, including a win in Super Bowl XX. However, when he was hired by the Saints in 1997, he was unable to produce a winning record. His 3-13 campaign in 1999 was his last.

5. Bill Parcells

Parcells is the most successful coach on this list given that he took the Patriots to the Super Bowl and nearly did the same with the Jets in 1998. However, he was unable to produce a single playoff win in Dallas.

6. George Seifert

Seifert had amazing success in San Francisco and left the 49ers in 1996 after finishing 12-4. He returned to coaching in 1999 in Carolina. However, after the Panthers finished with records of 8-8, 7-9, and 1-15, he was out of football.

7. Jimmy Johnson

Johnson led Miami to three playoff appearances, but he was unable to have the same success with the Dolphins as he had with the Cowboys. In his final season in Miami, the Dolphins went 9-7 and were destroyed in a 62-7 loss to the Jaguars.

8. Mike Holmgren

Holmgren won a Super Bowl in Green Bay before moving on to Seattle. He had success at his next stop, including a berth in Super Bowl XL, but it took Holmgren seven years before he got Seattle to that level.

9. Dick Vermeil

Vermeil left the Rams prematurely after St. Louis won Super Bowl XXXIV and returned to the NFL in 2001 with the Kansas City Chiefs. He had two winning seasons in five years in Kansas City but was unable to win a playoff game.

Bottom Line: there is simply little precedent for bringing in a big-name coach and experiencing the kind of success that most want to see from the Cowboys– that being a Super Bowl title.

How Teams Have Handled Success and Failure Similar to the 2007 Cowboys

Between 1996 and 2006, the Cowboys never won more than ten games in a season. This changed in 2007, when the Cowboys flew through most of the regular season and finished with a 13-3 record. Many now refuse to give Phillips credit for last year’s success because the Cowboys lost in the playoffs to the Giants.

Other teams have been in a situation similar to the Cowboys in 2007 and 2008, and the results are mixed in terms of how those teams have handled instant success followed so immediately by failure in the playoffs. Most of the examples below are fairly recent.

1. Kansas City Chiefs, 1995, 1997, and 2003

Kansas City has had a number of successful seasons in the past twenty years, but three seasons stand out as being very similar to the Cowboys’ 2007 season.

Joe Montana played his last season in the NFL with the Chiefs in 1994, and Kansas City finished 9-7. One year later, Kansas City turned to former 49er Steve Bono, and the result was a 13-3 record and home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. However, Marty Schottenheimer’s playoff curse was in full force that year, as the Chiefs lost 10-7 to the 9-7 Colts in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Kansas City stumbled in 1996, as the Chiefs finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs (sound familiar?)

The following year, Kansas City signed yet another former San Francisco quarterback in Elvis Grbac, and the Chiefs again finished the season at 13-3. One again, though, the Chiefs squandered home field advantage, losing to the Broncos in the divisional round.

The 1998 Chiefs finished 7-9, and Schottenheimer was out in Kansas City.

Couldn’t happen three times, could it? You bet. In Dick Vermeil’s third season, Kansas City went 13-3 and had the second best record in the AFC. But the Chiefs had to meet the Colts in the divisional round and lost to Indianapolis 38-31.

2004 result: 7-9.

2. Denver Broncos, 1996 and 2005

The Broncos were the best team in the AFC in 1996, finishing at 13-3, but Denver lost to the expansion Jacksonville Jaguars in the divisional round of the playoffs.

Denver rebounded a bit better than Kansas City, for in 1997, as the Broncos upset the Packers to win Super Bowl XXXII.

Several years later, in 2005, the Broncos cruised to a 13-3 record and the number two seed in the AFC playoffs. Denver beat New England but fell to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh.

Denver’s 2006 record: 9-7. Moreover, Denver failed to improve in either 2007 or 2008, leading to Shanahan’s dismissal that was announced on Tuesday.

3. Indianapolis Colts, 1999

The Colts went from 3-13 in Payton Manning’s first season in 1998 to 13-3 in Manning’s second season in 1999. Indianapolis lost to Tennessee in the divisional round of the playoffs, though, and then fell to 10-6 in 2000. A 6-10 record in 2001 led to Jim Mora’s firing, which also led to the hiring of Tony Dungy.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars, 1999

Jacksonville had a great season in 1999, finishing with an AFC-best 14-2 record. However, after losing to Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars fell back to Earth, recording records of 7-9, 6-10, and 6-10 in Tom Coughlin’s final three seasons.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 2001

Between 1998 and 2000, the Steelers struggled under Bill Cowher, recording records of 7-9, 6-10, and 9-7. However, in 2001, Pittsburgh was back near the top, recording a 13-3 record and earning the top seed in the AFC playoffs. However, the Steelers lost to the Patriots that year and then sank back a bit. Pittsburgh finished 10-5-1 in 2002 and 6-10 in 2003 before rebounding in 2004.

5. San Diego Chargers, 2004 and 2006

We’ll finish this by looking at the team that employed Phillips as defensive coordinator prior to his arrival in Dallas. San Diego finished 4-12 in 2003 but responded to Schottenheimer in 2004 when the Chargers recorded a 12-4 record. San Diego suffered a first round playoff loss to the Jets, though, and sank back to 9-7 in 2005. In 2006, though, the Chargers had their best regular season ever, finishing 14-2. That was followed by, of course, another playoff loss.

Schottenheimer was fired after the loss, and the Chargers hired Norv Turner to replace him. Turner was, of course, one of the Cowboys’ candidates, and Turner was able to lead the Chargers to 11-5 and 8-8 records along with two playoff berths.

Bottom Line: Nearly all of the teams listed above had a season similar to the Cowboys’ 13-3 campaign in 2007, and like Dallas, all failed once they reached the playoffs. The comparisons between Schottenheimer’s teams and Phillips’ 2007 team in Dallas are almost spooky. And since Schottenheimer continued to have the same problem, it does not bode well for Phillips if he learned anything from Marty while they were in San Diego.