Columnists in the Dallas area have taken it upon themselves to give us daily reminders that the Jerry Jones has to fire Wade Phillips for the Cowboys to have any chance to win in 2009. That is, of course, what is on most people’s minds.
But the talk has also extended outside of the Dallas area. Houston Chronicle columnist John McClain, who is generally well-regarded, wrote this nonsense yesterday:
Without change on the coaching staff and on the roster, just about every Cowboys fan knows it’ll be almost impossible to sell the 2009 edition of America’s Team as a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Getting blown out at Philadelphia and missing the playoffs isn’t the ending Jones planned before the Cowboys move into the Taj Mahal of stadiums next season.
No matter how hard Jones tries to convince us that he’s keeping Phillips, every Cowboys fan worth his star knows the owner is maneuvering behind the scenes and is at least talking to Bill Cowher, Mike Shanahan and/or Mike Holmgren — none of whom may coach next season.
The only way the Cowboys are going to make the kind of splash in the NFL swimming pool that Jones demands is to hire a big-name coach with a Super Bowl victory on his résumé.
Once again: The NFL is not like baseball or college football in the sense that coaches just step in an have immediate success. Many coaches who have had success with previous teams have spent years with other clubs trying to find the magic once again.
Consider Holmgren: He did a great job leading the Packers back to the top, but he also lost a Super Bowl in an upset. His records during his first six seasons in Seattle: 9-7, 6-10, 9-7, 7-9, 10-6, 9-7. And when the Seahawks finally turned a corner, finished 13-3, and made it to a Super Bowl, Seattle followed up with a 9-7 season (and, of course, a win over the Cowboys in the playoffs).
Holmgren’s Seahawks just finished a 4-12 season. But he has enough “star power” that he is going to step in and lead the Cowboys to a Super Bowl title in one season? Nonsense.
Consider Shanahan: His great success came during the last decade. Denver’s best season this decade came in 2005 when the Broncos went 13-3. The next season? Denver fell to 9-7. Since then, the Broncos have gone 7-9 and 8-8, leading to Shanahan’s dismissal.
But Shanahan is the man who is going to step in and replace Wade Phillips because Phillips’ team went 13- 3 and then 9-7? Shanahan is the right man when his last team blew a three-game division lead with three games to go in the season and missed the playoffs? Shanahan is going to dive into his bag of magic tricks and bring a Super Bowl title to Dallas in 2009? Nonsense.
Consider Cowher: His 2001 team went 13-3 but then fell lost the AFC Championship Game to the Patriots. The Steelers followed that up with a 10-5-1 campaign and then a 6-10 campaign. Cowher won a Super Bowl, but it came a year after the Steelers came up short during a season where they went 15-1.
Envisioning Cowher on the Dallas sideline may seem to be an ideal situation. But, like Shanahan and Holmgren, folks expect that Cowher will step in and have immediate success in Dallas, for only an “all-star coach” can step in an coach this group of all stars that Jerry has put together. If Cowher had success, it would probably only happen after he had a few years to put “his” team together, for inserting a coach is hardly a “plug-and-play” situation.
People are remembering the Bill Parcells’ era in Dallas as some sort of high point, for Parcells is the closest thing to a plug-and-play coach that this league has seen. But the truth is that Parcells had no greater success on the field as Chan Gailey did, and few believe that the Cowboys would have gone 13-3 in 2007 if Parcells was still the coach.
The problem is that the Cowboys have been put together in a manner where they are little more now than a collective group of talented individuals. This is not a team in the same sense that the Patriots or Colts are teams. Players are on the field not because they fill a specific need within a system, but rather because they are considered to be more talented. That’s not Wade Phillips’ doing. That’s Jerry’s doing.
Cowboys’ fans may tease Redskins’ fans because Daniel Snyder hasn’t been able to buy a championship for Washington. But isn’t Dallas doing exactly the same thing that Snyder has tried to do with the Redskins? A free agent becomes available, and Dallas tries to pounce on him even where the free agent really does not fit in with the Cowboys’ systems. Dallas can trade three draft choices for a receiver with some talent but with questionable work ethic, but everyone is surprised that the trade doesn’t work in the Cowboys’ favor?
Of the 12 playoff coaches in 2008, only Tony Dungy and Tom Coughlin have ever won Super Bowl titles. Both of those coaches suffered through many years of playoff losses and both were fired by their previous teams long before they won those championships. Other coaches– John Fox, Andy Reid, and Jeff Fisher– have made it to Super Bowls but have lost when they got there. And all three of those coaches have been the subject of firing rumors during the past few years when their teams have struggled.
Maybe Wade Phillips needs to go, but if he does, I would fully expect his removal to be part of a minor rebuilding process. But the idea that the only solution is for the new coach to have star power is nothing more than a fallacy.
Thank you for this reasoned and carefully worded message. I don’t get into the whole blogging thing because so much of it is mindless drivel. Most folks just rant without thinking things through. On a lark, I read a few blog comments today on the Dallas Cowboy website. Some one actually said we need to sign Michael Vick to replace Tony Romo!
This web page has taken the long haul look using past history as a means to do so. Today’s posting also uses what has occurred at other franchises. It is instructive to review what happens at other franchises. For example, long forgotten was the push in Pittsburgh to maybe oust Cowher after the 6-10 season. He can’t win the big one. Or the reason pushes to remove John Fox at Carolina, Coughlin in NY, or even Andy Reid in Philly.
Perhaps the team needs to be somewhat rebuilt. I think the experiments with Tank Johnson and Pacman Jones showed that they were ok acquisitions but no great shakes. They can move on. Roy Williams the WR? I guess we will see. That was a tremendous disappointment.
As far as Wade Phillips goes, as an interim coach, he did not do so great. When he was the actual head coach, he did pretty well at times. This can be checked out at Pro Football Reference.
All is not lost. Dallas had good company with the end of the season insofar as collapses are concerned: Tampa Bay, Denver, the NY Jets come to mind.
Let’s also remember that the team played with heart against Pittsburgh, NY, and even Baltimore (despite the wrenching long runs at the end). I think the team pressed too much and “over played.” A tendency that occurred some under Tom Landry. Just my guess. Anyway, I think the overblown rhetoric needs to calm down and let’s just see. The year before we were 13-3. I think we can get back there with some minor changes. Thanks again for the great posting today.
Thanks, Tim. I’ve read a number of comments about hiring Shanahan, but I am not anywhere close to convinced that he should come to Dallas. The theory that the only way Dallas will win a Super Bowl is to have a coach who had previously won a Super Bowl disregards one key fact– that coach would have to do something that no other NFL coach has ever done. In other words, no coach has won Super Bowls with two different franchises, but many are saying that hiring a coach with a Super Bowl ring is the ONLY way to win. That’s what I really disagree with.
Unfortunately, I think that this blog post is more of a fallacy than the belief it is trying to guard against. Cowboys fans don’t necesarilly want a coach with a ring: they want a coach who has a history of success. They’re sick of Jerry Jones hiring the likes of Chan Gailey and Dave Campo. Dallas does not need a “coach Jerry can coach,” Dallas needs a good GM and, most importantly, a head coach that is going to take charge of a “team” that has been let loose by a coaching staff that practices no accountability.
There are only two fallacies here. One is to summarize the fans’ desire as a desire for a “big-name coach.” As stated above, the fans just want a hard-nosed, successful coach. It just so happened that hard-nosed, successful coaches have big names. Bill Cowher came first and really started this “big name” trend. I’m sure most everyone would take a Mike Smith or a Tony Sparano (not big name hires) over a Wade Phillips any day of the week.
THe other fallacy is to say that coaches who have found success with one team just can’t find success with another team. This flirts with a post-hoc fallacy. You have to look at the individual situation each “big name coach” stepped into when he left the team that he one had so much success with into a completely different situation.
Maybe Jerry is right: maybe continuity is the only realistic chance of getting a super-bowl win for next year. But I’m not just worried about next year. I want another Dallas Cowboys Dynasty, or at least a team that’s going to be able to compete for a superbowl year after year. I don’t want to be one-and-done. The only long term solution is to get a coach who is tougher than Wade Phillips.
I disagree with you, Tyler, but thanks for the comment.
I am a Cowboys fans (that’s why I have a blog), only I don’t fall within this collective whole of Cowboys fans to which you seem to refer because I am sick of the coaching carousel. I couldn’t stand Chan Gailey and wanted the Cowboys to fire him in the middle of the 1999 season. I thought Dave Campo was entirely clueless and wanted him gone after 2000 or at least after 2001. I was very disappointed in Bill Parcells after 2004, and really wasn’t impressed at all after 2005.
Jerry has replaced these coaches, but we still haven’t seen so much as a playoff win. I know all of the arguments against Wade, but the bottom line is that the team has gone 22-10 with him in two seasons– whether you want to credit the talent or Jason Garrett or blind luck or anything else. Without injuries, Dallas wins at least 10 games this year even with the late-season collapse, and Dallas makes the playoffs again.
If your goal is long-term success, I don’t think we’ll find it with Shanahan, Cowher, or Holmgren.
Fans are fickle, and I count myself in that number. Fans just want to win, me included.
I was very happy with Wade while we were going 13-3, but the December collapse had me worried, and the loss to the Giants I was willing to accept as an aberration, assuming we were successful the next year.
Well, next year has come and gone, and the “team” has deteriorated. What was so different about the ’07 team compared to this one? Was it injuries? Did the stars learn to take advantage of Wade? Did Jerry get even more involved than usual?
I have no idea. I’m willing to give Wade another year (maybe two) but we better see some post-season success or even Jerry’s patience will grow thin . . .