Predictions Favor Cowboys in Final Game at Giants Stadium

A surprising number of commentators have predicted a Dallas win over the
Giants. Seven of the eight commentators at
ESPN picked Dallas, while five of the
eight commentators at the

Dallas Morning News
took Dallas.

One of those who took the Giants, though, was Todd Archer, who has the
highest prediction rate among the DMN staff. Tim Cowlishaw also took the Giants,
thinking that New York

might have an edge in this game
.



AccuScore
: Dallas 25, Giants 25

This game can’t be any closer if the AccuScore predictions are accurate. The
Giants won 50.3% of the simulations, but the average score is dead even at 24.5
to 24.5.

Eli Manning indicates his injury is not hurting his ability to play. If
he is healthy Manning is expected to have a pretty solid game with 230 yards
and an average of 1.6 TD passes and just 0.7 INTs. Tony Romo is averaging
similar stats with 240 yards, 1.7 TDs and 0.8 INTs. The key to the game is
the running game. If the Giants can re-establish their running game and
average 4.5 ypc the Giants are 53 percent favorites. If the Cowboys average
4.5 ypc they are 57 percent favorites. If both running games do well then
the game will hinge on turnovers. The team with at least a +1 turnover
margin advantage improves their chances from roughly 50 percent up to 75
percent.



WhatIfSports
: Dallas 25, Giants 23

The Cowboys did a little bit better in the WhatIfSports’ simulations, winning
62.6% of the games. The Cowboys averaged 163 rushing yards compared with 139 by
the Giants, and Eli Manning had a slightly higher interception percentage than
Tony Romo.


Madden Simulation
: Dallas 27, Giants 16

Tony Romo had a huge game in the Madden simulation.

The Dallas Cowboys look to knock their division rivals right out of the
playoff hunt, and it appears they do just that with the "Madden"-simulated,
27-16 win over the Giants.

Tony Romo gets a December win thanks to 271 yards passing, two
touchdowns, and more importantly, zero interceptions against the New York D.

With the win, the Cowboys improve to 9-3 on the season while the
once-mighty Giants fall to 6-6.

My Guess (8-3 this season based on win-loss)

On the day before Thanksgiving, I

predicted a 17-point Dallas win
over the Raiders. That turned out to be
accurate, though I had too much faith that Nick Folk would make more field
goals.

Since I am going to the game, I refuse to believe the Cowboys are going
to struggle against the Raiders, who have had problems putting together
back-to-back wins. Dallas will jump out to a 16-0 lead thanks to three Nick
Folk field goals. The Raiders will cut into the lead, but two second half
touchdowns will put the game away for Dallas.

For the season, my record in predicting wins is identical to the Cowboys’
overall record.

Key—

Week: My Prediction (Actual
Result)

Week 1: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 24
(actual: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 21)

Week 2: N.Y. Giants 17, Dallas 14
(actual: N.Y. Giants 33, Dallas 31)

Week 3: Dallas 31, Carolina 21
(actual: Dallas 21, Carolina 7)

Week 4: Dallas 24, Denver 14 (actual:
Denver 17, Dallas 10)

Week 5: Dallas 31, Kansas City 14
(actual: Dallas 26, Kansas City 20)

Week 7: Atlanta 28, Dallas 17
(actual: Dallas 37, Atlanta 21)

Week 8: Dallas 31, Seattle 17 (actual
Dallas 38, Seattle 17)

Week 9: Dallas 23, Philadelphia 17
(actual: Dallas 20, Philadelphia 16)

Week 10: Dallas 31, Green Bay 20
(actual: Green Bay 17, Dallas 7)

Week 11: Dallas 20, Washington 6
(actual: Dallas 7, Washington 6)

Week 12: Dallas 30, Oakland 13
(actual: Dallas 24, Oakland 7)

 

This week, I think the Cowboys will initially have problems on offense and
will fall behind early. However, the defense will hold the Giants to field
goals, and the score will be 6-0 at the half. Early in the third quarter, Dallas
will start to run the ball more effectively and will take the lead early in the
third quarter. The Cowboys will hold on to the lead by scoring one more
touchdown while holding the Giants to more field goals. The final:

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Dallas 21, N.Y. Giants 12


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