Commentators are generally split about whether the Cowboys will bounce back against the Chargers on Sunday. Four of the eight commentators at ESPN took Dallas, while five of the nine picking for the Dallas Morning News took the Cowboys.
As for the simulations, two of them picked Dallas to win by a slim margin, while the Madden simulation predicted a San Diego win.
AccuScore: Dallas 27, San Diego 26
Philip Rivers might torch the Dallas secondary, but AccuScore still predicts a Dallas win.
The Chargers passing offense looks unstoppable these days and Dallas has allowed 17 TDs while forcing just 8 INTs from opposing QBs. Philip Rivers has a better than 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio per simulation. If Rivers has 2+ TD passes and no more than 1 INT San Diego is the 56 percent favorite. For Dallas to win they need to pick off Rivers at least once and the Cowboys running game needs to average 5+ yards per carry. When they do this the Cowboys are the 75 percent favorite winning by an average score of DAL 31, SD 23. However, if the Cowboys average under 4.0 ypc Dallas has just a 44 percent chance.
WhatIfSports: Dallas 27, San Diego 23
WhatIfSports likewise predicts a big day from Rivers, as he averaged 313.5 yards in the simulations. However, the Cowboys averaged nearly 150 rushing yards in those simulations and won 54.1 percent of the games.
Madden Simulation: San Diego 31, Dallas 28
For the third time in the past four games, the simulation of the game using Madden resulted in a Dallas loss.
The Cowboys’ December woes continue as Dallas drops another one, this time to the Chargers, 31-28.
Tony Romo threw for 308 yards, but he also threw two critical second-half interceptions, including one with under two minutes left on the clock that helped setup San Diego’s game-winning, ten-yard touchdown pass from Philip Rivers to Vincent Jackson.
The win is the Chargers eighth straight as San Diego finds themselves playing some of the best football of anyone in the NFL right now heading into the stretch.
My Guess (8-4 this season based on win-loss)
My record has been identical to the Cowboys’ record nearly all season, and that’s not because I always pick the Cowboys to win. My prediction last week turned out to be a big dud.
This week, I think the Cowboys will initially have problems on offense and will fall behind early. However, the defense will hold the Giants to field goals, and the score will be 6-0 at the half. Early in the third quarter, Dallas will start to run the ball more effectively and will take the lead early in the third quarter. The Cowboys will hold on to the lead by scoring one more touchdown while holding the Giants to more field goals. The final: Dallas 21, N.Y. Giants 12
Of course, the Cowboys didn’t start slowly at all. When the team fell behind, the running game wasn’t there to save the Cowboys. Moreover, Dallas did not hold the Giants to field goals. Wrong on all counts.
Key—
Week: My Prediction (Actual Result)
Week 1: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 24 (actual: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 21)
Week 2: N.Y. Giants 17, Dallas 14 (actual: N.Y. Giants 33, Dallas 31)
Week 3: Dallas 31, Carolina 21 (actual: Dallas 21, Carolina 7)
Week 4: Dallas 24, Denver 14 (actual: Denver 17, Dallas 10)
Week 5: Dallas 31, Kansas City 14 (actual: Dallas 26, Kansas City 20)
Week 7: Atlanta 28, Dallas 17 (actual: Dallas 37, Atlanta 21)
Week 8: Dallas 31, Seattle 17 (actual Dallas 38, Seattle 17)
Week 9: Dallas 23, Philadelphia 17 (actual: Dallas 20, Philadelphia 16)
Week 10: Dallas 31, Green Bay 20 (actual: Green Bay 17, Dallas 7)
Week 11: Dallas 20, Washington 6 (actual: Dallas 7, Washington 6)
Week 12: Dallas 30, Oakland 13 (actual: Dallas 24, Oakland 7)
Week 13: Dallas 21, N.Y. Giants 12 (actual: N.Y. Giants 31, Dallas 24)
I am not going to abandon the Cowboys’ chances to make the playoffs and even pick up a playoff win. I think the Cowboys will fall behind tomorrow, but the team will regroup. Tony Romo will have a big day, and Nick Folk will rebound with at least two field goals and no misses.
The score:
Dallas 27, San Diego 20
2 Comments to “Cowboys Narrowly Beat Chargers in Simulations”
[...] Team News, Game Summary no comments At 3 a.m. on Sunday morning, my guess of the week had the Cowboys beating the Chargers 27-20. Don’t ask where I came up with: I am not going to abandon the Cowboys’ chances to make the [...]
[...] One day before the Cowboys faced the Chargers, I predicted that Nick Folk would make two field goals and not miss any. He missed a big field goal, and Dallas lost by three. [...]