Nothing Looks Promising for the Cowboys

Very few have given the Cowboys a chance to win against the Saints on Saturday night.

Randy Galloway’s prediction this week gives us an idea of the media’s perception of the Cowboys’ chances on Saturday night:

Saints 100, Cowboys 3

None of the Startle-Gram’s staff gave the Cowboys a chance to win at New Orleans. This is hardly surprising.  A few folks at the Dallas Morning News think the Cowboys may cover the seven-point spread, but only one believes that the Cowboys will win. As for ESPN, two of the eight commentators picked Dallas.

So of 23 media members’ predictions, only Adam Schefter (ESPN), Seth Wickersham (ESPN), and Bill Nichols (DMN) think the Cowboys will win.

The simulations predict a closer game, but none of them predict a Dallas win.

AccuScore: New Orleans 33, Dallas 25

The Cowboys only won 29% of the AccuScore simulations, and Drew Brees torched Dallas in most of these simulations.

The Cowboys December struggles are well documented and with DeMarcus Ware doubtful their pass defense which allowed many big plays to the Eagles is expected to struggle against the Saints. Drew Brees is projected for 290 passing yards on 72 percent completion percentage and just a 47 percent chance of throwing 1+ INTs. For the Cowboys to upset New Orleans they need to have at least 2 Brees interceptions and Tony Romo needs to have no more than 1 INT. If Romo commits fewer turnovers than Brees the Cowboys are 60 percent favorites.

WhatIfSports: New Orleans 30, Dallas 25

The Cowboys won 39.7% of WhatIfSports’ simulations. The Saints averaged nearly 400 per game, though the Cowboys had success on the ground, averaging 174 yards per game.

Madden Simulation: New Orleans 30, Dallas 27

The Cowboys had a little bit more luck in ESPN’s simulation using Madden, but the result was the same as the other simulations.

Make fun of the Cowboys’ miserable December win totals all you want, but man, what a brutal schedule. This week Dallas takes on the undefeated Saints in what turns out to be the best game of the week. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there are no moral victories, especially if the moral victories, aka losses, cost you a shot at the postseason.

The Cowboys actually led the game 27-20 heading into the fourth quarter, but that’s when Tony Romo threw two devastating interceptions, both leading to points, as New Orleans came back to win another nail-biter, 30-27.

Drew Brees threw for 285 yards and two touchdowns in the win to help the Saints improve to 14-0 on the season.

My Guess (8-5 based on win-loss)

I already complained about my prediction last week, which dropped my record to 8-5 this season. Here is a summary:

Key—

Week: My Prediction (Actual Result)

Week 1: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 24 (actual: Dallas 34, Tampa Bay 21)

Week 2: N.Y. Giants 17, Dallas 14 (actual: N.Y. Giants 33, Dallas 31)

Week 3: Dallas 31, Carolina 21 (actual: Dallas 21, Carolina 7)

Week 4: Dallas 24, Denver 14 (actual: Denver 17, Dallas 10)

Week 5: Dallas 31, Kansas City 14 (actual: Dallas 26, Kansas City 20)

Week 7: Atlanta 28, Dallas 17 (actual: Dallas 37, Atlanta 21)

Week 8: Dallas 31, Seattle 17 (actual Dallas 38, Seattle 17)

Week 9: Dallas 23, Philadelphia 17 (actual: Dallas 20, Philadelphia 16)

Week 10: Dallas 31, Green Bay 20 (actual: Green Bay 17, Dallas 7)

Week 11: Dallas 20, Washington 6 (actual: Dallas 7, Washington 6)

Week 12: Dallas 30, Oakland 13 (actual: Dallas 24, Oakland 7)

Week 13: Dallas 21, N.Y. Giants 12 (actual: N.Y. Giants 31, Dallas 24)

Week 14: Dallas 27, San Diego 20 (actual: San Diego 20, Dallas 17)

Frankly, there is no way I am predicting a Dallas win yet again. I don’t see the Cowboys being able to slow down the Saints’ attack, and I think New Orleans will jump out to a lead. Dallas might keep the game close, but Nick Folk will not only miss three field goals but also three extra points. The result:

New Orleans 30, Dallas 18