Note: I updated this post after the Bears beat the Vikings in overtime on Monday night.
Thanks to the Bears win over the Vikings on Monday night, the Cowboys still have a chance to earn the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs. The chance is fairly remote, but it’s still a chance.
A few rules:
First, under NFL tiebreaker procedures, “To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.”
The second criteria for Wild-Card tie breakers, after head-to-head record, is: “Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.”
Dallas is currently 8-3 in the NFC. A win over the Eagles would give Dallas an 11-5 record overall and a 9-3 record in the NFC.
Minnesota is also currently 8-3 in the NFC. A loss to the Giants next week would leave the Vikings at 11-5 overall with an 8-4 record in the NFC.
Arizona is also currently 10-5 with a conference record of 8-3. If the Cardinals beat the Packers next week and the Cowboys beat the Eagles, both teams would be tied at 11-5 with conference records of 9-3.
If Dallas, Arizona, and Minnesota all finish at 11-5, the Vikings would lose out based on conference record (Minnesota also lost to Arizona).
Between Dallas and Arizona, the third tiebreaker would apply: “Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.”
Common opponents between the Cowboys and Cardinals: Seattle, N.Y. Giants, Carolina, and Green Bay.
The Cowboys’ record against these opponents: 2-3. Arizona’s record: 4-1 (assuming a win over the Packers).
So… for the Cowboys to take the #2 seed, Dallas must hope for a Minnesota loss to the Giants and an Arizona loss to the Packers.
The Eagles would have an easier time taking the #2 seed because Philadelphia would win the tiebreaker with the Vikings based on conference record, even if Minnesota beat the Giants next week. The Eagles currently have a conference record of 9-2, which is tied with the Saints for the best among NFC teams.
If the Eagles do win, Dallas will necessarily be the #6 seed. That’s because Dallas would be 10-6 and would lose any tiebreaker to the Packers based on Green Bay’s win over Dallas earlier this year.
With the Bears up 16-0 in the 3rd, this is looking like a legitamite possibility. Dallas at home vs Philly and Green Bay is better than Arizona.
That 23-6 lead looked really good, Jim. Next time I looked up, though, it was 23-23. It’s currently 30-23, but Minnesota is driving.
Well, we still have a chance. Dallas needs to take care of business and hope for the best from the Giants and Packers.
“So… for the Cowboys to take the #2 seed, Dallas must hope for Minnesota losses to the Bears and Giants and an Arizona loss to the Packers.”
You mean an Arizona win against the Packers, right? That result might not be as likely as a Vikings loss to the Giants. The Giants are stinging from the embarrassing showing against the Panthers, to they would be looking to atone. The Vikings simply have not looked very good lately.
The Cowboys will lose a tiebreaker to the Cardinals, so if Arizona beats Green Bay, then Dallas can’t take the #2 seed no matter what. If Dallas loses, the Cowboys will be the #6 seed no matter what Green Bay does because Green Bay wins the tiebreaker.
It still does not make since how Dallas can make the #2 seed even if they win, and the Vike’s and Card’s lose. Both Dallas and GB will have 11-5 records with confrence records of 9-3. The Packers won the head-to-head. SO why would they not get the #2 seed?
Never mind I am a dork. Dallas gets the 2 seed for winning the division and will be ahead of the Pack because of that.
OK, I see now. Thanks.
Thanks for the info. GO COWBOYS!