Cowboys Chances Improve with Rex Grossman Starting for Washington

The Cowboys have found plenty of ways to lose this season, so the fact that Rex Grossman will replace Donovan McNabb this week at QB does not guarantee a Dallas win. Nevertheless, the Cowboys chances have certainly improved with this news.

Here’s the story of the benching from ESPN:

AccuScore took into account the change at QB, and the Cowboys won 74% of the predictions there. Dallas won the games by an average of 28.2 to 18.5. The summary:

The Dallas Cowboys are a solid favorite with a 74% chance to beat the Washington Redskins. Felix Jones is projected for 78 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 26% of simulations where Washington Redskins wins, Rex Grossman averages 1.18 TD passes vs 0.63 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.85 TDs to 1.28 interceptions. Ryan Torain averages 81 rushing yards and 0.8 rushing TDs when Washington Redskins wins and 46 yards and 0.28 TDs in losses. The Dallas Cowboys has a 61% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time.

Conversely, WhatIfSports ran the simulations as if McNabb would start, and Washington won 55.8 percent of those games by an average score of 23-22. In one simulation I ran, the Redskins pounded the Cowboys 41-10, though the Redskins featured both McNabb and Clinton Portis and the Cowboys featured Tony Romo. When I changed the simulation to reflect the starting lineups for tomorrow, Dallas won 17-7.

The Cowboys also pulled out a 23-20 win on ESPN’s Madden Simulation, as Jon Kitna hit Jason Witten with the game-winner:

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