Proceed Cautiously: Cowboys Favored Heavily Over Cardinals

Most simulations have the Cowboys beating the Cardinals on Christmas evening.

For the first time in several weeks, most commentators and simulations have the Cowboys beating the Cardinals on Christmas night rather handily. Of course, having confidence in these Cowboys in 2010 has been a curse, so let’s not go overboard.

As for the simulations, all have the Cowboys winning by three to seven points.

WhatIfSports: Dallas 27, Arizona 20. Dallas won 69.9 percent of these simulations.

AccuScore: Dallas 25, Arizona 22. The Cowboys averaged three turnovers per game but still won 59.7% of the games.

The Dallas Cowboys are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Arizona Cardinals. Felix Jones is projected for 50 rushing yards and a 25% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Arizona Cardinals wins, John Skelton averages 1.17 TD passes vs 0.49 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 0.9 interceptions. Tim Hightower averages 53 rushing yards and 0.73 rushing TDs when Arizona Cardinals wins and 28 yards and 0.26 TDs in losses. The Dallas Cowboys has a 59% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 79% of the time.

Team Rankings: Dallas 24, Arizona 17. This service is also featured on ESPN. According to its predictors, the Cowboys have a 69 to 79 percent chance to beat the Cardinals on Saturday.

Madden: Dallas 28, Arizona 18. According to ESPN’s Madden simulation, Jason Witten is the key to victory on Saturday.

Jason Witten is playing some of the best ball of his career, and for the past four games he has been a magnet for Jon Kitna’s passes. Look for that trend to continue as the “Madden” simulation has Witten catching another eight passes for 90 yards and one touchdown in the Cowboys’ 28-18 win over Arizona.

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At one point, this blog was actually known for something, and that would be my posting of the 1986 Dallas Cowboys Christmas Video. Others have since posted these clips, and as part of my holiday tradition, I’ll post them here again.

First, the 1986 team sings Christmas in Dallas.

If you managed to stomach that, the next one features some older Cowboys singing that classic tune, Good ‘Ol Days.


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