Simulations Say Cowboys Don’t Have Much of a Chance vs. New England

Most experts and simulations heavily favor New England over Dallas.

After two weeks of envisioning Alan Ball covering Wes Welker, I express no surprise that almost nobody has picked the Cowboys to beat the Patriots. Two of the simulation engines predict that this game will be a blowout, while a third simulation ended up fairly close.

But then there is Tecmo Super Bowl 2012, which contains a Dallas-friendly engine. That simulation gives us some hope.

AccuScore: New England 35, Dallas 24

It isn’t looking good for the Cowboys if AccuScore is accurate. The Patriots won 77% of the simulations.

The New England Patriots are a heavy favorite winning 77% of simulations over the Dallas Cowboys. Tom Brady is averaging 326 passing yards and 2.9 TDs per simulation and BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 56 rushing yards and a 45% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 23% of simulations where Dallas Cowboys wins, Tony Romo averages 2.33 TD passes vs 0.75 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 1.77 TDs to 1.32 interceptions. Felix Jones averages 57 rushing yards and 0.4 rushing TDs when Dallas Cowboys wins and 37 yards and 0.18 TDs in losses. New England Patriots has a 61% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 86% of the time.

What If Sports: New England 26, Dallas 23

It was not quite the blowout over at What If Sports. New England won 58.4% of the simulations, and the average score was only a three-point difference. Tony Romo averaged more than 300 passing yards in the simulations, but the Dallas defense had no answer for Tom Brady.

Madden: New England 49, Dallas 31

Madden gave the Dallas secondary even less credit, as the Dallas defense gave up five touchdown passes in a 49-31 loss.

Talk about offensive firepower! Tony Romo throws for 360 yards and three touchdowns but still gets upstaged by Tom Brady and his 379-yard, five-touchdown performance. Brady hit five different receivers for his five TDs, with only Chad Ochocinco left out of the end zone celebration. What else is new.

Tecmo Super Bowl 2012: Dallas 31, New England 17

The Cowboys took advantage of three Patriot fumbles in the second half, as the Cowboys improved to 4-1 on the season with a 31-17 win.

Dallas lost Felix Jones, Dez Bryant, and Jason Witten to injury. However, strong games by Tashard Choice and Martellus Bennett helped fill the void.

Tony Romo’s touchdown late in the fourth quarter sealed the win for Dallas.


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